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Since the beginning of January 2018 up until now, the Gold futures market has been in a tight ~4.63% range bound market stuck between ~1304.60 and ~1365. This year has offered terrible conditions for both the precious metal bulls and the bears. In reality, day traders via the futures market have been the only people that have had any chance to make anything of significance. Like most people, these low volatility market conditions have not been ideal for the Nassar Investing Trading Team. However, we have managed to catch a few good moves within this range such as calling the 3/1 low followed by a 2.96% rally, the 3/20 low followed by a 3.83% rally, and the 4/11 high followed by a 3.90% short.
In the months ahead, I do believe the prices of Gold can reach as high as $1,450. The trickiest part is to gauge when do we make THE low that will start the rally off to that number? After looking at numerous asset classes between the metals market and the currency markets, I have a strong conviction that we are coming up on that significant low and turn very soon, if not already seen it. Below I will lay out my thoughts of Gold on multiple time frames arguing my thoughts on the long term and the short term charts.
GOLD Weekly Chart: I believe Gold is in a large WXYXZ and at this point in time we are just now starting the large Y which should take us above the 2011 high of $1,923.70 in the years to come. For now I am expecting a smaller degree WXY to take us to the 100% Fibonacci extension of ~$1,458.70, from there we will need a significant retracement back into the ~$1,300 area which is where the next leg higher towards +$1,600 should begin.
GOLD Daily Chart: On the daily chart, you can see the larger degree ((WXY)) that is forming as I referenced on the weekly chart. However within that sequence you are able to see a smaller degree (ABC) playing out which we are now in wave C starting wave 3 of C. Wave 3 of C has found potential support last week right on the lower pitchfork band with a 13 combo exhaustion print. This marks a good risk to reward area for at least a bounce but more likely a rally.
GOLD 4 Hour Chart: This chart represents the completion of waves 1 and 2 of wave C shown in the Daily Chart. I believe wave 2 has either completed late last week around the $1,316 area or is very close to completing this upcoming week. The corrective sequence of wave 2 has played out as an expanded ((abc)) flat that looks to be just about complete. Late last week Gold found support on a different pitchfork band after a 5 wave completion and now has positive divergence. This is a potential turning area for a rally higher.
GOLD 1 Hour Chart: I am looking for a turn in gold right here as we have a 3 wave correction flat that likely ended late last week with positive divergence. Moving forward I am looking for a retest as shown by the arrow and then support to be held and a rally. The next inflection point will be at the 50% retracement of the previous swing roughly at 1342ish. Watch this area as this is a spot where we could potentially find resistance and head lower into 1280's before higher. As of right now the 1280's is a alternate I think 25% chance therefor risk to reward favors a move to 1365-1370 then a pullback then higher into +$1,400. Keep in mind this is a FED week coming up this could be the spark to the rally I am looking for.
GOLD 4 Hour DeMark Chart: Currently printed on the 4 hour Gold chart is a purple 13 combo count. For those of you are not familiar with DeMark, its purpose is to serve as a indicator anticipating inflection points based off of market exhaustion. These exhaustion areas help allow traders buy into weakness and sell into strength which allows for ideal entries and exits. Late last week, we have now printed the purple 13 Combo chart, signaling we are close to sellers exhaustion and a bounce is in store and even potentially a nice size rally. Unfortunately at this time this 13 Combo count has not printed on the Daily or the Weekly charts but nonetheless this chart still says we are still at good risk to reward buying opportunity.