This is my first blog post for Nassar Investing and I am excited to be kicking it off with the S&P 500 in such a interesting point of time. I hope that all readers enjoy this post and the posts to come. I strive to perform non bias technical analysis and only forecasting what current charts are telling me at the time. If you enjoy my post, all I ask is that you RT and like my link that I will be sharing on my twitter. If you would like to start your 2 week trial click here. My disclaimer applies to each and every blog post including this one.
From late January up to the beginning of April the S&P 500 has been a volatile but fairly predictable market for a trader. The Nassar Investing Team did fairly well catching the impulse waves to the downside and knowing what to expect for the week ahead. However, ever since the April 2nd low we have been in a very choppy, slow grind to the upside. I have watched ES and SPX every day since April 2nd studying the price action and also the internals of this move. Internals include market breadth, Advancers/Decliners, Bull/Bear volume, TICK size and I have to say in my humble, personal view majority of the days the internals have been poor at best. There was a few days back around mid April, when we were below Monthly Pivot 2676 when we had strong up volume and the AD favored a break and rip higher but bulls just couldn't get the job done. From that point, I began to realize that the low is likely not in and this sort of price action offers at the very least a retest of the April 2nd low of 2553.80. The question I sit and ask myself right now isn't if we go and retest that low, but more along the lines of when do we do this and how do we get there? Below I will be displaying a few different charts with short summaries for the reader to take into his or her own consideration.
SPX Weekly Chart: As one can see we have completed a wave 3 in early 2018 which has delivered us a higher high in the RSI and now looking for a 3 wave corrective move lower to complete a wave 4. From wave 4, expectations are for a rally to new highs upwards of 3200-3500 as of right now. This last wave 5 higher to new highs will deliver exhaustion signals of negative divergence and a completion of a 5 wave impulse from 2009 lows.
SPX Daily Chart: Zoomed in here it is much easier to see the completion of wave 3 and wave 4 in current progress. As of right now, my thinking is wave 4 completes its WXY corrective sequence in the 2450-2470 area which will mark the bottom and beginning of wave 5 to new highs.
SPX 1 Hour Chart: Currently in the last wave of the larger degree ((y)) of ((wxy)) to complete wave 4. within wave ((y)) we have experienced a 3 down for a (w) then a 3 back higher for a (x) now we should see a nice abc lower to at least retest April 2nd lows at 2553.80. As of now, wave a has a 1,2,3, and now needs to complete a small 4 and 5 on Monday before a pullback up into 2869-2696 then lower. One can see the RSI price cycle has finally broken down and we are against channel support. The back test for wave b is the key moving forward in the short term. If the back test finds resistance and fails, we head lower in wave c, but if not then we can still trend higher in my alternate scenario up to 2735-2740.
SPX 1 Hour Chart: Smaller odds but potential for a bullish triangle keep this in mind.
Bonus Chart: Crude Oil Daily outlook view as of right now