If you enjoy my post, all I ask is that you RT and like my link that I will be sharing on my twitter. If you would like to start your 2 week trial click here. My disclaimer applies to each and every blog post including this one.
Hello everyone, this is my first blog post in about a month! I have been very busy with life but all that should come to an end next week and my schedule will slow down a lot. With that said I hope to blog more:)
In this post I would like to talk a little bit about the seasonality of the US Dollar and how it aligns perfectly with my technical analysis assuming lower prices to come. Many can vouch for Nassar Investing and our accuracy with the US Dollar so far in 2018. We hope to continue this accuracy not only with the Dollar but other instruments as well. A lot of you have seen me posting on my twitter weeks before the 5/29/18 high saying to expect a top at $95.07, and we turned at $95.03.
Based on the chart above displaying the US dollar 15 and 33 year seasonality average, typically the dollar has a strong rally in the month of May that typically tops between June-July. So far in the first 6 months of the year the USD has traded in line with its typical seasonality. Based on the chart we can expect that the USD has either already topped or within a month or two within topping. Once we experience the top, once can assume we see a nice decline until September-November before another bounce.
The seasonality report clearly fits in very well with my current primary view and even my alternate that we may get a higher high into July before seeing new lows this fall.
Above you will find a Daily chart of DXY. Within the chart we have recently experienced a 5 down sequence into February 2018. Once a 5 wave move completes we can assume a correction in 3 waves and that is exactly what we saw in a WXY flat that likely topped 5/29/18. Expecting further weakness from here.
The above chart displays DXY on a 4 hour basis after our team correctly predicted some decent resistance in the 95.07 area which happened to be the top (so far). Since that top we have had a move lower in a ABC pattern which will now lead us to believe we get a bounce higher into the 94.13-94.34 area before resuming lower.
DXY on a 1 hour basis is displaying we are currently in a ABC backtest into the red box which will be our next sell area for lower prices into the 91-92 area. From the 91-92 area we need to pay careful attention whether we find support in a WXY and go to a new high into July or we go lower. As of now my primary is a small bounce in the 91-92 area then lower to resume.
Potential Alternate Scenario
To enlarge chart click here
Above you can see a potential alternate for the DXY. This alternate does not come into play until the black box target is complete from there we will be 3 down that can offer a rally to a higher high before lower. The black box is an inflection point. In order for my primary to workout expect a bounce at the black box then resistance and lower to resume below 90.85.